wjm@whuxk.UUCP (07/12/83)
This is my personal opinion, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of
my employer, Bell Laboratories ....
I expect that analog records (with grooves and their attendant problems) will
be with us for some time, given the large number of records in existence.
Given the limited number of plants that can make CD's, I don't see CD's taking
over a significant part of the mass record market before the 1986-87 time frame
and I expect to see analog records produced into the early 1990's.
Unfortunately, I can't see high-end analog turntables dropping in price, since
those will be the only units that will continue to be in demand, by museums and
collectors - the same people who today have high-end equipment to play their
Edison cylinders and acoustic 78's. These units are limited production now
and will continue to be so in the future.
What I can see happening is the mass market $200 turntables disappearing from
the scene in the late '80's or early '90's, since these units depend on volume
production to keep their prices down, and as CD's become more popular the
market will shift to producing mass market low priced CD players (for $300 or so
?).
As for the replacement of CD's, I could see them giving way to some form of
random access magentic or other optical based technology which would retain
all the advantages of CD's but also have the ability to be written as well
as read. Perhaps, given the declining price of computer memory, the music
(and video) storage memory of the future might be the memory of one's home
computer, and instead of buying an album like you do now, you merely have it
downloaded into your system over telephone lines, and then the central
computer debits your checking account for the amount of the "album". This
system would also make the rental of recordings for one play possible.
To touch on the tube vs transistor debate .. I'd like to mention that there
is a compromise of sorts available with the new power FET's whichhhave the
electrical characteristics of tubes but are solid state devices (and don't
require filament heater power or output transformers and come in both tube
like N-channel and the complimentary P-channel devices - I've yet to see a
tube with positive charges flowing through it.)
I've been quite pleased with their sound - I have them in my Hafler DH-220
power amp and find that they compare favorablly with any tube amp I've heard
(not to mention what a 115 w/ch RMS tube amp does to one's back and electric
bill!)
Bill Mitchell
(whuxk!wjm)