C70:human-nets (07/31/82)
>From Pleasant@Rutgers Fri Jul 30 17:47:06 1982
HUMAN-NETS Digest Saturday, 31 Jul 1982 Volume 5 : Issue 73
Today's Topics:
Administrivia
NSF Study
Computer Access in the Home
Future Shock and Network Videotapes
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: 30 Jul 1982 1929-EDT
From: Mel <Pleasant at RUTGERS>
Subject: Administrivia
Hi folks,
The Human-Nets digest is alive and well and once again on the
move. Submissions for publication should be mailed to
HUMAN-NETS@RUTGERS. Matters concerning additions, deletions, and
changes to the mailing list as well as requests for archives and the
like should be sent to HUMAN-NETS-REQUEST@RUTGERS. Just in case you
forget, all the pointers at -AI, -UTEXAS, -BRL and -SCORE have been
updated to re-route any messages sent to them to me.
-Mel
------------------------------
Date: 14 Jun 82 12:48-PDT
From: mclure at SRI-UNIX
Subject: NSF study
c. 1982 N.Y. Times News Service
WASHINGTON - A report commissioned by the National Science
Foundation and made public Sunday speculates that by the end of this
century electronic information technology will have transformed
American home, business, manufacturing, school, family and political
life.
The report suggests that one-way and two-way home information
systems, called teletext and videotex, will penetrate deeply into
daily life, with an effect on society as profound as those of the
automobile and commercial television earlier in this century.
It conjured a vision, at once appealing and threatening, of a
style of life defined and controlled by videotex terminals throughout
the house.
As a consequence, the report envisioned this kind of American home
by the year 1998:
''Family life is not limited to meals, weekend outings, and
once-a-year vacations. Instead of being the glue that holds things
together so that family members can do all those other things they're
expected to do - like work, school, and community gatherings - the
family is the unit that does those other things, and the home is the
place where they get done. Like the term 'cottage industry,' this view
might seem to reflect a previous era when family trades were passed
down from generation to generation, and children apprenticed to their
parents. In the 'electronic cottage,' however, one electronic 'tool
kit' can support many information production trades.''
The report warned that the new technology would raise difficult
issues of privacy and control that will have to be addressed soon to
''maximize its benefits and minimize its threats to society.''
The study was made by the Institute for the Future, a Menlo Park,
Calif., agency under contract to the National Science Foundation. It
was an attempt at the risky business of ''technology assessment,''
peering into the future of an electronic world.
The study focused on the emerging videotex industry, formed by the
marriage of two older technologies, communications and computing. It
estimated that 40 percent of American households will have two-way
videotex service by the end of the century. By comparison, it took
television 16 years to penetrate 90 percent of households from the
time commercial service was begun.
The ''key driving force'' controlling the speed of videotex
penetration, the report said, is the extent to which advertisers can
be persuaded to use it, reducing the cost of the service to
subscribers.
But for all the potential benefits the new technology may bring,
the report said, there will be unpleasant ''trade offs'' in
''control.''
''Videotex systems create opportunities for individuals to
exercise much greater choice over the information available to them,''
the researchers wrote. ''Individuals may be able to use videotex
systems to create their own newspapers, design their own curricula,
compile their own consumer guides.
''On the other hand, because of the complexity and sophistication
of these systems, they create new dangers of manipulation or social
engineering, either for political or economic gain. Similarly, at the
same time that these systems will bring a greatly increased flow of
information and services into the home, they will also carry a stream
of information out of the home about the preferences and behavior of
its occupants.''
The report stressed what it called ''transformative effects'' of
the new technology, the largely unintended and unanticipated social
side effects. ''Television, for example, was developed to provide
entertainment for mass audiences but the extent of its social and
psychological side effects on children and adults was never planned
for,'' the report said. ''The mass-produced automobile has impacted on
city design, allocation of recreation time, environmental policy, and
the design of hospital emergency room facilities.''
Such effects, it added, were likely to become apparent in home and
family life, in the consumer marketplace, in the business office and
in politics.
Widespread penetration of the technology, it said, would mean,
among other things, these developments:
-The home will double as a place of employment, with men and women
conducting much of their work at the computer terminal. This will
affect both the architecture and location of the home. It will also
blur the distinction between places of residence and places of
business, with uncertain effects on zoning, travel patterns and
neighborhoods.
-Home-based shopping will permit consumers to control
manufacturing directly, ordering exactly what they need for
''production on demand.''
-There will be a shift away from conventional workplace and school
socialization. Friends, peer groups and alliances will be determined
electronically, creating classes of people based on interests and
skills rather than age and social class.
-A new profession of information ''brokers'' and ''managers'' will
emerge, serving as ''gatekeepers,'' monitoring politicians and
corporations and selectively releasing information to interested
parties.
-The ''extended family'' might be recreated if the elderly can
support themselves through electronic homework, making them more
desirable to have around.
The blurring of lines between home and work, the report stated,
will raise difficult issues, such as working hours. The new
technology, it suggested, may force the development of a new kind of
business leader. ''Managing the complicated communication in networks
between office and home may require very different styles than current
managers exhibit,'' the report concluded.
The study also predicted a much greater diversity in the American
political power structure. ''Videotex might mean the end of the
two-party system, as networks of voters band together to support a
variety of slates - maybe hundreds of them,'' it said.
Copies of the report, titled ''Teletext and Videotex in the United
States,'' were scheduled to be available after June 28 from
McGraw-Hill Publications, 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y.
10020.
------------------------------
Date: 15 Jun 1982 0844-PDT
Subject: Computer access in the home
From: WMartin at Office-8 (Will Martin)
In the light of the recent submission concerning the NSF study on
information technology:
If this topic is of interest to you, watch your local PBS affiliate
for a re-airing of the series "Media Probes". This is generally
interesting as a survey of jobs and practices in the electronic media,
but the last show in the series is particularily appropriate toward
this topic.
It is titled "The Future", and purports to be a factual account of an
experimental installation of high-tech two-way cable and computer
access in a small Ohio town, "Sugar Falls". However, the people
interviewed and portrayed are determined to be obviously actors after
a few minutes of watching, and the technology, especially the over-use
of voice recognition, proves that the situation is fictional; there is
a statement to that effect at the very end of the closing credits.
Nonetheless, the portrayal of the supposed effect of this technology
on the habits and family life of the subjects are of interest, even
though some seemed over-dramatized.
Even though this has finished its initial run, PBS repeats such series
many times, and some affiliates may still be carrying it delayed some
time later than the local one here did, so I thought it was
appropriate to mention now. Watch for it or call your local station
for info on it.
By the way, is there a mechanism for buying or renting videotape
versions of PBS shows or series for educational or business purposes?
(Aside from just taping them off-the-air, I mean.) Some series, such
as this one, or "Fast Forward", look to be appropriate for use in
education or training classes in data processing or similar fields.
How could I go about finding out how much it would cost to obtain such
programs for private use by our training section? I have a catalog of
cassettes from NPR; is there something similar for video from PBS?
What about from the commercial networks?
Will Martin
USArmy DARCOM ALMSA
------------------------------
Date: 16 June 1982 0015-PDT (Wednesday)
From: lauren at UCLA-Security (Lauren Weinstein)
Subject: Future Shock and Network Videotapes
I am always amused by these studies predicting tremendous changes in
our "way of life" based on Teletext, Viewdata, Cable, and similar
technologies.
Anybody who looks behind the headlines sees that there are a number of
problems with these technologies, many of which are economic rather
than strictly technical.
For example, the study that claims 40% of U.S. homes will have 2-way
data services by the turn of the century can be flipped over: almost
2/3 of the homes WILL NOT have such services by the turn of the
century. Experience is already beginning to show that
"advertiser-sponsored" teletext/viewdata services do not seem capable
of holding their own -- advertisers by and large need more display
capability than most of the services provide, and usually (except in
certain situations) prefer much more verbose ads than are conveniently
possible with these text systems. The upshot of this seems to be that
most of these services will be pay-as-you-go... which is not
necessarily bad, but means that we are creating the potential for yet
ANOTHER stratification of society -- those who can afford access to
public online data systems and those who can't. If large numbers
can't, we face some serious problems -- especially as these services
become more of a necessity for "success".
Studies of existing Viewdata systems seem to indicate some serious
problems. To maintain a profit, most information in the databases has
been priced in such a manner as to make its use impractical except by
businesses in most cases -- and in fact it turns out that even in
Britain, where these services have been around for awhile, Viewdata is
mostly a business service. And even the businesses are complaining.
The simple Viewdata channels (1200 baud in, 150 baud out) and fairly
crude ("cheap") terminal equipment prevents any really sophisticated
computer-based services (the screen size is 40 X 24, by the way), and
many businesses are used to much more complex and useful services from
their own LOCAL machines and networks... Viewdata just doesn't impress
them.
More problems? Of course. One fascinating study pointed out one
reason why Teletext systems might generally fail -- the overall
reading level of the population is so low (and falling) that many
people would be incapable of reading any but very simple text...
hardly encouraging for a new communications medium.
There are still technical issues as well. While Teletext transmits
its data over standard television signals, Viewdata requires the
phone in a typical dialup configuration (with which we are all
familiar.) However, it appears that many users would be:
a) unwilling to tie up their (single) home phone for long periods
for data calls
b) unable to afford a second line
c) unable to afford the access costs for the calls in any case
(especially when local calling areas go pffffft!)
One final note. I have access, right now, to three different Teletext
magazines here in my home. They are all fully updated and perfect
models of the types of services that are promoted for widespread use
in the future. They *are* interesting, and occasionally informative,
but usually they are not all that great. Sure, I sometimes look up
the "current" (one hour old) temperature, and freeway bulletins are
handy... but would I *pay* for this service? Hmmm. If I didn't get
this equipment for free (as part of the project) I don't think I'd
shell out money if I was the average consumer. (As an experimenter,
I'd probably buy it anyway, I will admit...)
In fact, many of the Teletext, Viewdata, and Cable TV studies are
based on situations where the users in the testbeds get the services
for FREE. Very few tests have realistically charged the users, and I
suspect we'll see a big change in acceptance rates when charging
becomes the order of the day rather than the exception. (The rosy
glow of the original "QUBE" project in Columbus has already started to
wear off... turns out that the 2-way interactive capability of the
cable is uninteresting to most users, most of whom simply want to
watch movies and sports).
I'm the first one to admit that much of this technology is fascinating
and useful ... but it *is* important to try keep it all in some sort
of perspective...
--Lauren--
P.S. Regarding videotapes of networks. All of the networks have very
strict rules regarding taping of programming. While the current state
of "home taping" regulations is in a state of flux, the rules
regarding recording for educational or other reuse are very strict and
not in question. PBS has special rules for educational users which
are comparatively liberal, I believe. In any case, the best bet is
always to call the networks themselves and talk to their legal people.
CBS, ABC, and NBC would be called in NYC, PBS in Washington D.C.
--LW--
------------------------------
End of HUMAN-NETS Digest
************************C70:human-nets (07/31/82)
>From Pleasant@Rutgers Sat Jul 31 03:13:39 1982
HUMAN-NETS Digest Saturday, 31 Jul 1982 Volume 5 : Issue 73
Today's Topics:
Administrivia
NSF Study
Computer Access in the Home
Future Shock and Network Videotapes
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: 30 Jul 1982 1929-EDT
From: Mel <Pleasant at RUTGERS>
Subject: Administrivia
Hi folks,
The Human-Nets digest is alive and well and once again on the
move. Submissions for publication should be mailed to
HUMAN-NETS@RUTGERS. Matters concerning additions, deletions, and
changes to the mailing list as well as requests for archives and the
like should be sent to HUMAN-NETS-REQUEST@RUTGERS. Just in case you
forget, all the pointers at -AI, -UTEXAS, -BRL and -SCORE have been
updated to re-route any messages sent to them to me.
-Mel
------------------------------
Date: 14 Jun 82 12:48-PDT
From: mclure at SRI-UNIX
Subject: NSF study
c. 1982 N.Y. Times News Service
WASHINGTON - A report commissioned by the National Science
Foundation and made public Sunday speculates that by the end of this
century electronic information technology will have transformed
American home, business, manufacturing, school, family and political
life.
The report suggests that one-way and two-way home information
systems, called teletext and videotex, will penetrate deeply into
daily life, with an effect on society as profound as those of the
automobile and commercial television earlier in this century.
It conjured a vision, at once appealing and threatening, of a
style of life defined and controlled by videotex terminals throughout
the house.
As a consequence, the report envisioned this kind of American home
by the year 1998:
''Family life is not limited to meals, weekend outings, and
once-a-year vacations. Instead of being the glue that holds things
together so that family members can do all those other things they're
expected to do - like work, school, and community gatherings - the
family is the unit that does those other things, and the home is the
place where they get done. Like the term 'cottage industry,' this view
might seem to reflect a previous era when family trades were passed
down from generation to generation, and children apprenticed to their
parents. In the 'electronic cottage,' however, one electronic 'tool
kit' can support many information production trades.''
The report warned that the new technology would raise difficult
issues of privacy and control that will have to be addressed soon to
''maximize its benefits and minimize its threats to society.''
The study was made by the Institute for the Future, a Menlo Park,
Calif., agency under contract to the National Science Foundation. It
was an attempt at the risky business of ''technology assessment,''
peering into the future of an electronic world.
The study focused on the emerging videotex industry, formed by the
marriage of two older technologies, communications and computing. It
estimated that 40 percent of American households will have two-way
videotex service by the end of the century. By comparison, it took
television 16 years to penetrate 90 percent of households from the
time commercial service was begun.
The ''key driving force'' controlling the speed of videotex
penetration, the report said, is the extent to which advertisers can
be persuaded to use it, reducing the cost of the service to
subscribers.
But for all the potential benefits the new technology may bring,
the report said, there will be unpleasant ''trade offs'' in
''control.''
''Videotex systems create opportunities for individuals to
exercise much greater choice over the information available to them,''
the researchers wrote. ''Individuals may be able to use videotex
systems to create their own newspapers, design their own curricula,
compile their own consumer guides.
''On the other hand, because of the complexity and sophistication
of these systems, they create new dangers of manipulation or social
engineering, either for political or economic gain. Similarly, at the
same time that these systems will bring a greatly increased flow of
information and services into the home, they will also carry a stream
of information out of the home about the preferences and behavior of
its occupants.''
The report stressed what it called ''transformative effects'' of
the new technology, the largely unintended and unanticipated social
side effects. ''Television, for example, was developed to provide
entertainment for mass audiences but the extent of its social and
psychological side effects on children and adults was never planned
for,'' the report said. ''The mass-produced automobile has impacted on
city design, allocation of recreation time, environmental policy, and
the design of hospital emergency room facilities.''
Such effects, it added, were likely to become apparent in home and
family life, in the consumer marketplace, in the business office and
in politics.
Widespread penetration of the technology, it said, would mean,
among other things, these developments:
-The home will double as a place of employment, with men and women
conducting much of their work at the computer terminal. This will
affect both the architecture and location of the home. It will also
blur the distinction between places of residence and places of
business, with uncertain effects on zoning, travel patterns and
neighborhoods.
-Home-based shopping will permit consumers to control
manufacturing directly, ordering exactly what they need for
''production on demand.''
-There will be a shift away from conventional workplace and school
socialization. Friends, peer groups and alliances will be determined
electronically, creating classes of people based on interests and
skills rather than age and social class.
-A new profession of information ''brokers'' and ''managers'' will
emerge, serving as ''gatekeepers,'' monitoring politicians and
corporations and selectively releasing information to interested
parties.
-The ''extended family'' might be recreated if the elderly can
support themselves through electronic homework, making them more
desirable to have around.
The blurring of lines between home and work, the report stated,
will raise difficult issues, such as working hours. The new
technology, it suggested, may force the development of a new kind of
business leader. ''Managing the complicated communication in networks
between office and home may require very different styles than current
managers exhibit,'' the report concluded.
The study also predicted a much greater diversity in the American
political power structure. ''Videotex might mean the end of the
two-party system, as networks of voters band together to support a
variety of slates - maybe hundreds of them,'' it said.
Copies of the report, titled ''Teletext and Videotex in the United
States,'' were scheduled to be available after June 28 from
McGraw-Hill Publications, 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y.
10020.
------------------------------
Date: 15 Jun 1982 0844-PDT
Subject: Computer access in the home
From: WMartin at Office-8 (Will Martin)
In the light of the recent submission concerning the NSF study on
information technology:
If this topic is of interest to you, watch your local PBS affiliate
for a re-airing of the series "Media Probes". This is generally
interesting as a survey of jobs and practices in the electronic media,
but the last show in the series is particularily appropriate toward
this topic.
It is titled "The Future", and purports to be a factual account of an
experimental installation of high-tech two-way cable and computer
access in a small Ohio town, "Sugar Falls". However, the people
interviewed and portrayed are determined to be obviously actors after
a few minutes of watching, and the technology, especially the over-use
of voice recognition, proves that the situation is fictional; there is
a statement to that effect at the very end of the closing credits.
Nonetheless, the portrayal of the supposed effect of this technology
on the habits and family life of the subjects are of interest, even
though some seemed over-dramatized.
Even though this has finished its initial run, PBS repeats such series
many times, and some affiliates may still be carrying it delayed some
time later than the local one here did, so I thought it was
appropriate to mention now. Watch for it or call your local station
for info on it.
By the way, is there a mechanism for buying or renting videotape
versions of PBS shows or series for educational or business purposes?
(Aside from just taping them off-the-air, I mean.) Some series, such
as this one, or "Fast Forward", look to be appropriate for use in
education or training classes in data processing or similar fields.
How could I go about finding out how much it would cost to obtain such
programs for private use by our training section? I have a catalog of
cassettes from NPR; is there something similar for video from PBS?
What about from the commercial networks?
Will Martin
USArmy DARCOM ALMSA
------------------------------
Date: 16 June 1982 0015-PDT (Wednesday)
From: lauren at UCLA-Security (Lauren Weinstein)
Subject: Future Shock and Network Videotapes
I am always amused by these studies predicting tremendous changes in
our "way of life" based on Teletext, Viewdata, Cable, and similar
technologies.
Anybody who looks behind the headlines sees that there are a number of
problems with these technologies, many of which are economic rather
than strictly technical.
For example, the study that claims 40% of U.S. homes will have 2-way
data services by the turn of the century can be flipped over: almost
2/3 of the homes WILL NOT have such services by the turn of the
century. Experience is already beginning to show that
"advertiser-sponsored" teletext/viewdata services do not seem capable
of holding their own -- advertisers by and large need more display
capability than most of the services provide, and usually (except in
certain situations) prefer much more verbose ads than are conveniently
possible with these text systems. The upshot of this seems to be that
most of these services will be pay-as-you-go... which is not
necessarily bad, but means that we are creating the potential for yet
ANOTHER stratification of society -- those who can afford access to
public online data systems and those who can't. If large numbers
can't, we face some serious problems -- especially as these services
become more of a necessity for "success".
Studies of existing Viewdata systems seem to indicate some serious
problems. To maintain a profit, most information in the databases has
been priced in such a manner as to make its use impractical except by
businesses in most cases -- and in fact it turns out that even in
Britain, where these services have been around for awhile, Viewdata is
mostly a business service. And even the businesses are complaining.
The simple Viewdata channels (1200 baud in, 150 baud out) and fairly
crude ("cheap") terminal equipment prevents any really sophisticated
computer-based services (the screen size is 40 X 24, by the way), and
many businesses are used to much more complex and useful services from
their own LOCAL machines and networks... Viewdata just doesn't impress
them.
More problems? Of course. One fascinating study pointed out one
reason why Teletext systems might generally fail -- the overall
reading level of the population is so low (and falling) that many
people would be incapable of reading any but very simple text...
hardly encouraging for a new communications medium.
There are still technical issues as well. While Teletext transmits
its data over standard television signals, Viewdata requires the
phone in a typical dialup configuration (with which we are all
familiar.) However, it appears that many users would be:
a) unwilling to tie up their (single) home phone for long periods
for data calls
b) unable to afford a second line
c) unable to afford the access costs for the calls in any case
(especially when local calling areas go pffffft!)
One final note. I have access, right now, to three different Teletext
magazines here in my home. They are all fully updated and perfect
models of the types of services that are promoted for widespread use
in the future. They *are* interesting, and occasionally informative,
but usually they are not all that great. Sure, I sometimes look up
the "current" (one hour old) temperature, and freeway bulletins are
handy... but would I *pay* for this service? Hmmm. If I didn't get
this equipment for free (as part of the project) I don't think I'd
shell out money if I was the average consumer. (As an experimenter,
I'd probably buy it anyway, I will admit...)
In fact, many of the Teletext, Viewdata, and Cable TV studies are
based on situations where the users in the testbeds get the services
for FREE. Very few tests have realistically charged the users, and I
suspect we'll see a big change in acceptance rates when charging
becomes the order of the day rather than the exception. (The rosy
glow of the original "QUBE" project in Columbus has already started to
wear off... turns out that the 2-way interactive capability of the
cable is uninteresting to most users, most of whom simply want to
watch movies and sports).
I'm the first one to admit that much of this technology is fascinating
and useful ... but it *is* important to try keep it all in some sort
of perspective...
--Lauren--
P.S. Regarding videotapes of networks. All of the networks have very
strict rules regarding taping of programming. While the current state
of "home taping" regulations is in a state of flux, the rules
regarding recording for educational or other reuse are very strict and
not in question. PBS has special rules for educational users which
are comparatively liberal, and
not in question. PBS has special rules for educational users which
are comparatively liberal, I believe. In any case, the best bet is
always to call the networks themselves and talk to their legal people.
CBS, ABC, and NBC would be called in NYC, PBS in WashingC70:human-nets (07/31/82)
>From Pleasant@Rutgers Sat Jul 31 03:13:39 1982
HUMAN-NETS Digest Saturday, 31 Jul 1982 Volume 5 : Issue 73
Today's Topics:
Administrivia
NSF Study
Computer Access in the Home
Future Shock and Network Videotapes
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: 30 Jul 1982 1929-EDT
From: Mel <Pleasant at RUTGERS>
Subject: Administrivia
Hi folks,
The Human-Nets digest is alive and well and once again on the
move. Submissions for publication should be mailed to
HUMAN-NETS@RUTGERS. Matters concerning additions, deletions, and
changes to the mailing list as well as requests for archives and the
like should be sent to HUMAN-NETS-REQUEST@RUTGERS. Just in case you
forget, all the pointers at -AI, -UTEXAS, -BRL and -SCORE have been
updated to re-route any messages sent to them to me.
-Mel
------------------------------
Date: 14 Jun 82 12:48-PDT
From: mclure at SRI-UNIX
Subject: NSF study
c. 1982 N.Y. Times News Service
WASHINGTON - A report commissioned by the National Science
Foundation and made public Sunday speculates that by the end of this
century electronic information technology will have transformed
American home, business, manufacturing, school, family and political
life.
The report suggests that one-way and two-way home information
systems, called teletext and videotex, will penetrate deeply into
daily life, with an effect on society as profound as those of the
automobile and commercial television earlier in this century.
It conjured a vision, at once appealing and threatening, of a
style of life defined and controlled by videotex terminals throughout
the house.
As a consequence, the report envisioned this kind of American home
by the year 1998:
''Family life is not limited to meals, weekend outings, and
once-a-year vacations. Instead of being the glue that holds things
together so that family members can do all those other things they're
expected to do - like work, school, and community gatherings - the
family is the unit that does those other things, and the home is the
place where they get done. Like the term 'cottage industry,' this view
might seem to reflect a previous era when family trades were passed
down from generation to generation, and children apprenticed to their
parents. In the 'electronic cottage,' however, one electronic 'tool
kit' can support many information production trades.''
The report warned that the new technology would raise difficult
issues of privacy and control that will have to be addressed soon to
''maximize its benefits and minimize its threats to society.''
The study was made by the Institute for the Future, a Menlo Park,
Calif., agency under contract to the National Science Foundation. It
was an attempt at the risky business of ''technology assessment,''
peering into the future of an electronic world.
The study focused on the emerging videotex industry, formed by the
marriage of two older technologies, communications and computing. It
estimated that 40 percent of American households will have two-way
videotex service by the end of the century. By comparison, it took
television 16 years to penetrate 90 percent of households from the
time commercial service was begun.
The ''key driving force'' controlling the speed of videotex
penetration, the report said, is the extent to which advertisers can
be persuaded to use it, reducing the cost of the service to
subscribers.
But for all the potential benefits the new technology may bring,
the report said, there will be unpleasant ''trade offs'' in
''control.''
''Videotex systems create opportunities for individuals to
exercise much greater choice over the information available to them,''
the researchers wrote. ''Individuals may be able to use videotex
systems to create their own newspapers, design their own curricula,
compile their own consumer guides.
''On the other hand, because of the complexity and sophistication
of these systems, they create new dangers of manipulation or social
engineering, either for political or economic gain. Similarly, at the
same time that these systems will bring a greatly increased flow of
information and services into the home, they will also carry a stream
of information out of the home about the preferences and behavior of
its occupants.''
The report stressed what it called ''transformative effects'' of
the new technology, the largely unintended and unanticipated social
side effects. ''Television, for example, was developed to provide
entertainment for mass audiences but the extent of its social and
psychological side effects on children and adults was never planned
for,'' the report said. ''The mass-produced automobile has impacted on
city design, allocation of recreation time, environmental policy, and
the design of hospital emergency room facilities.''
Such effects, it added, were likely to become apparent in home and
family life, in the consumer marketplace, in the business office and
in politics.
Widespread penetration of the technology, it said, would mean,
among other things, these developments:
-The home will double as a place of employment, with men and women
conducting much of their work at the computer terminal. This will
affect both the architecture and location of the home. It will also
blur the distinction between places of residence and places of
business, with uncertain effects on zoning, travel patterns and
neighborhoods.
-Home-based shopping will permit consumers to control
manufacturing directly, ordering exactly what they need for
''production on demand.''
-There will be a shift away from conventional workplace and school
socialization. Friends, peer groups and alliances will be determined
electronically, creating classes of people based on interests and
skills rather than age and social class.
-A new profession of information ''brokers'' and ''managers'' will
emerge, serving as ''gatekeepers,'' monitoring politicians and
corporations and selectively releasing information to interested
parties.
-The ''extended family'' might be recreated if the elderly can
support themselves through electronic homework, making them more
desirable to have around.
The blurring of lines between home and work, the report stated,
will raise difficult issues, such as working hours. The new
technology, it suggested, may force the development of a new kind of
business leader. ''Managing the complicated communication in networks
between office and home may require very different styles than current
managers exhibit,'' the report concluded.
The study also predicted a much greater diversity in the American
political power structure. ''Videotex might mean the end of the
two-party system, as networks of voters band together to support a
variety of slates - maybe hundreds of them,'' it said.
Copies of the report, titled ''Teletext and Videotex in the United
States,'' were scheduled to be available after June 28 from
McGraw-Hill Publications, 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y.
10020.
------------------------------
Date: 15 Jun 1982 0844-PDT
Subject: Computer access in the home
From: WMartin at Office-8 (Will Martin)
In the light of the recent submission concerning the NSF study on
information technology:
If this topic is of interest to you, watch your local PBS affiliate
for a re-airing of the series "Media Probes". This is generally
interesting as a survey of jobs and practices in the electronic media,
but the last show in the series is particularily appropriate toward
this topic.
It is titled "The Future", and purports to be a factual account of an
experimental installation of high-tech two-way cable and computer
access in a small Ohio town, "Sugar Falls". However, the people
interviewed and portrayed are determined to be obviously actors after
a few minutes of watching, and the technology, especially the over-use
of voice recognition, proves that the situation is fictional; there is
a statement to that effect at the very end of the closing credits.
Nonetheless, the portrayal of the supposed effect of this technology
on the habits and family life of the subjects are of interest, even
though some seemed over-dramatized.
Even though this has finished its initial run, PBS repeats such series
many times, and some affiliates may still be carrying it delayed some
time later than the local one here did, so I thought it was
appropriate to mention now. Watch for it or call your local station
for info on it.
By the way, is there a mechanism for buying or renting videotape
versions of PBS shows or series for educational or business purposes?
(Aside from just taping them off-the-air, I mean.) Some series, such
as this one, or "Fast Forward", look to be appropriate for use in
education or training classes in data processing or similar fields.
How could I go about finding out how much it would cost to obtain such
programs for private use by our training section? I have a catalog of
cassettes from NPR; is there something similar for video from PBS?
What about from the commercial networks?
Will Martin
USArmy DARCOM ALMSA
------------------------------
Date: 16 June 1982 0015-PDT (Wednesday)
From: lauren at UCLA-Security (Lauren Weinstein)
Subject: Future Shock and Network Videotapes
I am always amused by these studies predicting tremendous changes in
our "way of life" based on Teletext, Viewdata, Cable, and similar
technologies.
Anybody who looks behind the headlines sees that there are a number of
problems with these technologies, many of which are economic rather
than strictly technical.
For example, the study that claims 40% of U.S. homes will have 2-way
data services by the turn of the century can be flipped over: almost
2/3 of the homes WILL NOT have such services by the turn of the
century. Experience is already beginning to show that
"advertiser-sponsored" teletext/viewdata services do not seem capable
of holding their own -- advertisers by and large need more display
capability than most of the services provide, and usually (except in
certain situations) prefer much more verbose ads than are conveniently
possible with these text systems. The upshot of this seems to be that
most of these services will be pay-as-you-go... which is not
necessarily bad, but means that we are creating the potential for yet
ANOTHER stratification of society -- those who can afford access to
public online data systems and those who can't. If large numbers
can't, we face some serious problems -- especially as these services
become more of a necessity for "success".
Studies of existing Viewdata systems seem to indicate some serious
problems. To maintain a profit, most information in the databases has
been priced in such a manner as to make its use impractical except by
businesses in most cases -- and in fact it turns out that even in
Britain, where these services have been around for awhile, Viewdata is
mostly a business service. And even the businesses are complaining.
The simple Viewdata channels (1200 baud in, 150 baud out) and fairly
crude ("cheap") terminal equipment prevents any really sophisticated
computer-based services (the screen size is 40 X 24, by the way), and
many businesses are used to much more complex and useful services from
their own LOCAL machines and networks... Viewdata just doesn't impress
them.
More problems? Of course. One fascinating study pointed out one
reason why Teletext systems might generally fail -- the overall
reading level of the population is so low (and falling) that many
people would be incapable of reading any but very simple text...
hardly encouraging for a new communications medium.
There are still technical issues as well. While Teletext transmits
its data over standard television signals, Viewdata requires the
phone in a typical dialup configuration (with which we are all
familiar.) However, it appears that many users would be:
a) unwilling to tie up their (single) home phone for long periods
for data calls
b) unable to afford a second line
c) unable to afford the access costs for the calls in any case
(especially when local calling areas go pffffft!)
One final note. I have access, right now, to three different Teletext
magazines here in my home. They are all fully updated and perfect
models of the types of services that are promoted for widespread use
in the future. They *are* interesting, and occasionally informative,
but usually they are not all that great. Sure, I sometimes look up
the "current" (one hour old) temperature, and freeway bulletins are
handy... but would I *pay* for this service? Hmmm. If I didn't get
this equipment for free (as part of the project) I don't think I'd
shell out money if I was the average consumer. (As an experimenter,
I'd probably buy it anyway, I will admit...)
In fact, many of the Teletext, Viewdata, and Cable TV studies are
based on situations where the users in the testbeds get the services
for FREE. Very few tests have realistically charged the users, and I
suspect we'll see a big change in acceptance rates when charging
becomes the order of the day rather than the exception. (The rosy
glow of the original "QUBE" project in Columbus has already started to
wear off... turns out that the 2-way interactive capability of the
cable is uninteresting to most users, most of whom simply want to
watch movies and sports).
I'm the first one to admit that much of this technology is fascinating
and useful ... but it *is* important to try keep it all in some sort
of perspective...
--Lauren--
P.S. Regarding videotapes of networks. All of the networks have very
strict rules regarding taping of programming. While the current state
of "home taping" regulations is in a state of flux, the rules
regarding recording for educational or other reuse are very strict and
not in question. PBS has special rules for educational users which
are comparatively liberal, I believe. In any case, the best bet is
always to call the networks themselves and talk to their legal people.
CBS, ABC, and NBC would be called in NYC, PBS in Washington D.C.
--LW--
------------------------------
End of HUMAN-NETS Digest
************************Pleasant@Rutgers (07/31/82)
HUMAN-NETS Digest Saturday, 31 Jul 1982 Volume 5 : Issue 73
Today's Topics:
Administrivia
NSF Study
Computer Access in the Home
Future Shock and Network Videotapes
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: 30 Jul 1982 1929-EDT
From: Mel <Pleasant at RUTGERS>
Subject: Administrivia
Hi folks,
The Human-Nets digest is alive and well and once again on the
move. Submissions for publication should be mailed to
HUMAN-NETS@RUTGERS. Matters concerning additions, deletions, and
changes to the mailing list as well as requests for archives and the
like should be sent to HUMAN-NETS-REQUEST@RUTGERS. Just in case you
forget, all the pointers at -AI, -UTEXAS, -BRL and -SCORE have been
updated to re-route any messages sent to them to me.
-Mel
------------------------------
Date: 14 Jun 82 12:48-PDT
From: mclure at SRI-UNIX
Subject: NSF study
c. 1982 N.Y. Times News Service
WASHINGTON - A report commissioned by the National Science
Foundation and made public Sunday speculates that by the end of this
century electronic information technology will have transformed
American home, business, manufacturing, school, family and political
life.
The report suggests that one-way and two-way home information
systems, called teletext and videotex, will penetrate deeply into
daily life, with an effect on society as profound as those of the
automobile and commercial television earlier in this century.
It conjured a vision, at once appealing and threatening, of a
style of life defined and controlled by videotex terminals throughout
the house.
As a consequence, the report envisioned this kind of American home
by the year 1998:
''Family life is not limited to meals, weekend outings, and
once-a-year vacations. Instead of being the glue that holds things
together so that family members can do all those other things they're
expected to do - like work, school, and community gatherings - the
family is the unit that does those other things, and the home is the
place where they get done. Like the term 'cottage industry,' this view
might seem to reflect a previous era when family trades were passed
down from generation to generation, and children apprenticed to their
parents. In the 'electronic cottage,' however, one electronic 'tool
kit' can support many information production trades.''
The report warned that the new technology would raise difficult
issues of privacy and control that will have to be addressed soon to
''maximize its benefits and minimize its threats to society.''
The study was made by the Institute for the Future, a Menlo Park,
Calif., agency under contract to the National Science Foundation. It
was an attempt at the risky business of ''technology assessment,''
peering into the future of an electronic world.
The study focused on the emerging videotex industry, formed by the
marriage of two older technologies, communications and computing. It
estimated that 40 percent of American households will have two-way
videotex service by the end of the century. By comparison, it took
television 16 years to penetrate 90 percent of households from the
time commercial service was begun.
The ''key driving force'' controlling the speed of videotex
penetration, the report said, is the extent to which advertisers can
be persuaded to use it, reducing the cost of the service to
subscribers.
But for all the potential benefits the new technology may bring,
the report said, there will be unpleasant ''trade offs'' in
''control.''
''Videotex systems create opportunities for individuals to
exercise much greater choice over the information available to them,''
the researchers wrote. ''Individuals may be able to use videotex
systems to create their own newspapers, design their own curricula,
compile their own consumer guides.
''On the other hand, because of the complexity and sophistication
of these systems, they create new dangers of manipulation or social
engineering, either for political or economic gain. Similarly, at the
same time that these systems will bring a greatly increased flow of
information and services into the home, they will also carry a stream
of information out of the home about the preferences and behavior of
its occupants.''
The report stressed what it called ''transformative effects'' of
the new technology, the largely unintended and unanticipated social
side effects. ''Television, for example, was developed to provide
entertainment for mass audiences but the extent of its social and
psychological side effects on children and adults was never planned
for,'' the report said. ''The mass-produced automobile has impacted on
city design, allocation of recreation time, environmental policy, and
the design of hospital emergency room facilities.''
Such effects, it added, were likely to become apparent in home and
family life, in the consumer marketplace, in the business office and
in politics.
Widespread penetration of the technology, it said, would mean,
among other things, these developments:
-The home will double as a place of employment, with men and women
conducting much of their work at the computer terminal. This will
affect both the architecture and location of the home. It will also
blur the distinction between places of residence and places of
business, with uncertain effects on zoning, travel patterns and
neighborhoods.
-Home-based shopping will permit consumers to control
manufacturing directly, ordering exactly what they need for
''production on demand.''
-There will be a shift away from conventional workplace and school
socialization. Friends, peer groups and alliances will be determined
electronically, creating classes of people based on interests and
skills rather than age and social class.
-A new profession of information ''brokers'' and ''managers'' will
emerge, serving as ''gatekeepers,'' monitoring politicians and
corporations and selectively releasing information to interested
parties.
-The ''extended family'' might be recreated if the elderly can
support themselves through electronic homework, making them more
desirable to have around.
The blurring of lines between home and work, the report stated,
will raise difficult issues, such as working hours. The new
technology, it suggested, may force the development of a new kind of
business leader. ''Managing the complicated communication in networks
between office and home may require very different styles than current
managers exhibit,'' the report concluded.
The study also predicted a much greater diversity in the American
political power structure. ''Videotex might mean the end of the
two-party system, as networks of voters band together to support a
variety of slates - maybe hundreds of them,'' it said.
Copies of the report, titled ''Teletext and Videotex in the United
States,'' were scheduled to be available after June 28 from
McGraw-Hill Publications, 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y.
10020.
------------------------------
Date: 15 Jun 1982 0844-PDT
Subject: Computer access in the home
From: WMartin at Office-8 (Will Martin)
In the light of the recent submission concerning the NSF study on
information technology:
If this topic is of interest to you, watch your local PBS affiliate
for a re-airing of the series "Media Probes". This is generally
interesting as a survey of jobs and practices in the electronic media,
but the last show in the series is particularily appropriate toward
this topic.
It is titled "The Future", and purports to be a factual account of an
experimental installation of high-tech two-way cable and computer
access in a small Ohio town, "Sugar Falls". However, the people
interviewed and portrayed are determined to be obviously actors after
a few minutes of watching, and the technology, especially the over-use
of voice recognition, proves that the situation is fictional; there is
a statement to that effect at the very end of the closing credits.
Nonetheless, the portrayal of the supposed effect of this technology
on the habits and family life of the subjects are of interest, even
though some seemed over-dramatized.
Even though this has finished its initial run, PBS repeats such series
many times, and some affiliates may still be carrying it delayed some
time later than the local one here did, so I thought it was
appropriate to mention now. Watch for it or call your local station
for info on it.
By the way, is there a mechanism for buying or renting videotape
versions of PBS shows or series for educational or business purposes?
(Aside from just taping them off-the-air, I mean.) Some series, such
as this one, or "Fast Forward", look to be appropriate for use in
education or training classes in data processing or similar fields.
How could I go about finding out how much it would cost to obtain such
programs for private use by our training section? I have a catalog of
cassettes from NPR; is there something similar for video from PBS?
What about from the commercial networks?
Will Martin
USArmy DARCOM ALMSA
------------------------------
Date: 16 June 1982 0015-PDT (Wednesday)
From: lauren at UCLA-Security (Lauren Weinstein)
Subject: Future Shock and Network Videotapes
I am always amused by these studies predicting tremendous changes in
our "way of life" based on Teletext, Viewdata, Cable, and similar
technologies.
Anybody who looks behind the headlines sees that there are a number of
problems with these technologies, many of which are economic rather
than strictly technical.
For example, the study that claims 40% of U.S. homes will have 2-way
data services by the turn of the century can be flipped over: almost
2/3 of the homes WILL NOT have such services by the turn of the
century. Experience is already beginning to show that
"advertiser-sponsored" teletext/viewdata services do not seem capable
of holding their own -- advertisers by and large need more display
capability than most of the services provide, and usually (except in
certain situations) prefer much more verbose ads than are conveniently
possible with these text systems. The upshot of this seems to be that
most of these services will be pay-as-you-go... which is not
necessarily bad, but means that we are creating the potential for yet
ANOTHER stratification of society -- those who can afford access to
public online data systems and those who can't. If large numbers
can't, we face some serious problems -- especially as these services
become more of a necessity for "success".
Studies of existing Viewdata systems seem to indicate some serious
problems. To maintain a profit, most information in the databases has
been priced in such a manner as to make its use impractical except by
businesses in most cases -- and in fact it turns out that even in
Britain, where these services have been around for awhile, Viewdata is
mostly a business service. And even the businesses are complaining.
The simple Viewdata channels (1200 baud in, 150 baud out) and fairly
crude ("cheap") terminal equipment prevents any really sophisticated
computer-based services (the screen size is 40 X 24, by the way), and
many businesses are used to much more complex and useful services from
their own LOCAL machines and networks... Viewdata just doesn't impress
them.
More problems? Of course. One fascinating study pointed out one
reason why Teletext systems might generally fail -- the overall
reading level of the population is so low (and falling) that many
people would be incapable of reading any but very simple text...
hardly encouraging for a new communications medium.
There are still technical issues as well. While Teletext transmits
its data over standard television signals, Viewdata requires the
phone in a typical dialup configuration (with which we are all
familiar.) However, it appears that many users would be:
a) unwilling to tie up their (single) home phone for long periods
for data calls
b) unable to afford a second line
c) unable to afford the access costs for the calls in any case
(especially when local calling areas go pffffft!)
One final note. I have access, right now, to three different Teletext
magazines here in my home. They are all fully updated and perfect
models of the types of services that are promoted for widespread use
in the future. They *are* interesting, and occasionally informative,
but usually they are not all that great. Sure, I sometimes look up
the "current" (one hour old) temperature, and freeway bulletins are
handy... but would I *pay* for this service? Hmmm. If I didn't get
this equipment for free (as part of the project) I don't think I'd
shell out money if I was the average consumer. (As an experimenter,
I'd probably buy it anyway, I will admit...)
In fact, many of the Teletext, Viewdata, and Cable TV studies are
based on situations where the users in the testbeds get the services
for FREE. Very few tests have realistically charged the users, and I
suspect we'll see a big change in acceptance rates when charging
becomes the order of the day rather than the exception. (The rosy
glow of the original "QUBE" project in Columbus has already started to
wear off... turns out that the 2-way interactive capability of the
cable is uninteresting to most users, most of whom simply want to
watch movies and sports).
I'm the first one to admit that much of this technology is fascinating
and useful ... but it *is* important to try keep it all in some sort
of perspective...
--Lauren--
P.S. Regarding videotapes of networks. All of the networks have very
strict rules regarding taping of programming. While the current state
of "home taping" regulations is in a state of flux, the rules
regarding recording for educational or other reuse are very strict and
not in question. PBS has special rules for educational users which
are comparatively liberal, I believe. In any case, the best bet is
always to call the networks themselves and talk to their legal people.
CBS, ABC, and NBC would be called in NYC, PBS in Washington D.C.
--LW--
------------------------------
End of HUMAN-NETS Digest
************************