[net.math] Simple Statistics Puzzle

ech@pyuxll.UUCP (Ned Horvath) (08/17/83)

Your three cabinets illustrates the same principle as the puzzle I use
to illustrate why I hate statisitcs:

	1. A family has two children; the older one is a boy.
	   What is the probability that both children are boys?

	2. A family has two children; at least one of them is a boy.
	   What is the probability that both children are boys?

The official answers to those two questions differ.  My theory is that
if something so simple defies my intuition, I had better stick to
empirical measurements of stochastic processes, because there is no way
I am going to analyze a real-world problem accurately...

=Ned=