rainbow@ihuxe.UUCP (08/24/83)
You made the following statements in your confusing article:
"The probability associated with picking a gold coin
in the first place is not part of the original question
as stated. It is a given that the gold coin is chosen."
"The problem with the 2/3 answer is that once we have that
gold coin in our grubby little paws, we have reduced the
problem to two cabinets(not three remaining drawers)."
These are totally correct and actually only restate/clarify the original
problem. Both support the 2/3 answer. I dont see how you can possibly use
them to refute the 2/3 answer.
Let me combine your two quotes:
"Given that a gold coin is chosen, what is the probability
that you have chosen the two gold cabinet rather than the
silver-gold cabinet?"
Do you agree that this is equivalent to the original problem and that this
supports your quotes? If so, you must now also believe that the 2/3 answer
is obvious. Otherwise keep adding more gold coins to the first cabinet and
more silver coins to the latter cabinet until the answer becomes clear!