rainbow@ihuxe.UUCP (08/24/83)
It never ceases to amaze me the thinking processes people go through to
arrive at the wrong answers. A response to the second coin problem stated
the following:
case 1) top=g bot=g
top=g bot=s
top=s bot=s
case 2) top=g bot=g
top=s bot=g
top=s bot=s
"If a gold coin is found in the bottom drawer in case 1, a gold coin
will be in the top drawer 100% of the time. If a gold coin is found
in the bottom drawer in case 2, a gold coin will be in the top
drawer 50% of the time. Since both cases are equally likely:
.50(1)+.50(.5)=.75 "
***************************** NOT TRUE *******************************
Since case 2 has more gold coins in the bottom drawers, this case occurs
more often. Exactly twice as often. Hence:
.33(1)+.67(.5)=2/3 !!
Next time dont let anyone talk you out of the correct answer which is and
always will be 2/3.