butch@inuxc.UUCP (08/26/83)
I'm in the need of a way to calculate the percentage of winning an end game in backgammon??? The way it is done now usually is to play it out X times or have a computer play it out. But I would think that a formula could do the job. By "end game" I mean the part of the game when all contact has broken off and both players are bearing-off or bearing-in to bear-off. The input would be the number of pieces on each point and the value of each point. It should be calculated for the player on roll. inuxc!butch
markp@tekmdp.UUCP (Mark Paulin) (08/26/83)
I disagree that a formula is enough to compute the probability of the player on roll winning an endgame. The way the stones are left on the points after a bearing-off miss is crucial. Perhaps there exists a guaranteed best strategy of bearing off which would allow a hard-and-fast number to be calculated -- I don't know of it. I think it is still necessary to examine all possible paths to the end of the game and assign probabilities to them. You might find it enlightening to play a game "la misere" (for the loss) sometime... Mark Paulin ...tektronix!tekmdp!markp