[net.math] BG endgames

butch@inuxc.UUCP (08/26/83)

	I'm in the need of a way to calculate the percentage
	of winning an end game in backgammon???  The way it is
	done now usually is to play it out X times or have a computer
	play it out.  But I would think that a formula could
	do the job.  By "end game" I mean the part of the game
	when all contact has broken off and both players are 
	bearing-off or bearing-in to bear-off.
 	
	The input would be the number of pieces on each point and
	the value of each point.  It should be calculated for the 
	player on roll.
 
				inuxc!butch

markp@tekmdp.UUCP (Mark Paulin) (08/26/83)

I disagree that a formula is enough to compute the probability of the player
on roll winning an endgame.  The way the stones are left on the points after
a bearing-off miss is crucial.  Perhaps there exists a guaranteed best
strategy of bearing off which would allow a hard-and-fast number to be
calculated -- I don't know of it.  I think it is still necessary to examine
all possible paths to the end of the game and assign probabilities to them.

You might find it enlightening to play a game "la misere" (for the loss)
sometime...


Mark Paulin
...tektronix!tekmdp!markp