lew@ihuxr.UUCP (Lew Mammel, Jr.) (09/29/83)
R. Wienski wonders why 7/46 disagrees with the Bayesian answer. He erred by not including the missing card among the cards remaining after the 5 clubs are drawn. The answer is 8/47. Note that : 13*12*11*10*9 13 12*11*10*9*8 ------------- = -- * ------------ 51*50*49*48*47 8 51*50*49*48*47 Calling this value "A", the Bayesian answer becomes: 8/13 * A / ( 8/13 * A + 3*A ) = 8/47 It doesn't matter if the 5 clubs are drawn before or after the card is lost. Lew Mammel, Jr. ihuxr!lew